How to estimate a market for a product when nothing like it exists yet?
This week’s Entrepreneurship 101 speaker, Chris Sullivan from IDC, spoke about market research resources — leading up to how to estimate your market share based on a rational process rather than the usual “Oh, we’ll get about 1% of the market in year 1, 2% in year 2, etc.” He also addressed the question “How do you estimate a market for a product that doesn’t exist yet?” by talking about proxies.
The best, perhaps apocryphal, story about proxies that I have heard relates to Xerox. In their early founding days, how did they estimate the market for a photocopier when no such product existed? Simple — they looked at the amount of carbon paper being used. And the rest is history!
Question of the Week
I’d like to hear other stories of creative market assessment — how have you estimated the market for your product when nothing quite like it exists yet? Share some of your creativity, brag a little (and promote your product) with the Ent 101 community.
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As a Venture Group Advisor at MaRS, Tony advises entrepreneurs and high growth companies, particularly in environmental, advanced materials and manufacturing markets, with a special emphasis on mentoring and development of entrepreneurs.